《百家乐软件》

In 2018, we started to realize that too much of a good thing is a bad thing. Just a few years previous, we loved having a few good streaming services to choose from. We loved the online originals that were better than anything on broadcast or cable, 我们喜欢削减有线电视费用.

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但在2018年, 这些服务、原创节目和电影不断涌现, 我们发现不可能跟上. Think about Lucy 和 Ethel 和 the chocolate conveyer belt (now, that was peak TV). 这就是我的感觉.

有一段时间，我们欢迎朋友推荐电视节目. 现在，我们讨厌他们. 另一部必看剧集? 另一个“下一个 打破坏”? 太多了.

2018年一开始，问题就出现了. 今年1月, Ooyala发表了一份报告称49%的受访者认为他们有太多的电视选择, 虽然, 具有讽刺意味的是, 他们都不太满意. Maybe that’s why households felt they needed to add more 和 more services as new options appeared—so they could catch every streaming show before their friends did.

下一个问题是，人们觉得他们有太多的服务. A 凤凰城报道同样是从1月份开始的调查显示，42%的美国人在调查中表示.S. 成年人拒绝为流媒体服务每月支付超过20美元的费用. With most broadb和 households currently having between two 和 three streaming services, 这个数字可能还在上升.

For households that have multiple services, finding all the shows they want is also a problem. When must-watch programs are scattered across multiple services 和 platforms, 寻找内容是一件苦差事. In March, Hub娱乐研究 said 69% would rather get all their TV options 来自单一来源. Look for channel aggregators, modeled after Amazon Prime Channels, to find a following in 2019. They make it easy to add or subtract services 和 pay with one monthly bill. 2019年初，Roku推出了自己的聚合器, 尽管它需要更多的大牌内容来获得广泛的支持.

而不是削减他们提供的东西, 流媒体服务正不断推出原创内容. 2018年1月, TDG 研究表示，Netflix, Amazon Prime, 和 Hulu would triple their spending on originals 和 fork over a combined 每年100亿美元 by 2022. 今年2月, 各种 reported that Netflix would have 700 original shows on the air by the end of the year. Those efforts are clearly driving growth at the world’s first global TV network, but consumers are more dissatisfied than ever since they don’t have time to watch all the shows they want. Not that we aren’t trying: An end-of-year survey from LG Electronics defines a “serious watcher” as someone who watches 10 or more episodes per week 和 watches content on multiple platforms. 报告称，千禧一代更有可能认为这是一种一种生活方式.

Netflix仍然是SVOD服务的领头羊, 到2018年底，它已经播出了700部原创节目.

As 流媒体 2018年频繁报道, 即使是流媒体，观众也希望获得类似电视的体验, 但他们还没有明白. 例如, Conviva报道 17年1月.7% of all video plays worldwide either experience a video start failure or exited before the video could begin.

2018年，在线观看转移到了客厅. While mobile video streaming is still growing, connected TV viewing is the big gainer. When watching long-form premium video, people would rather use the biggest screen in the house. Thanks to falling flat-screen prices, that big screen is bigger than ever. 随着观看习惯的改变，2018年的桌面收视率有所下降.

The move to TV streaming promises to be a good one for publishers 和 advertisers. Ads on streamed programs take up the whole screen 和 are usually unskippable, 导致高完成率. 可寻址视频广告肯定会在2019年强劲增长, since ad providers are able to target ads to individual households 和 enjoy high ad rates in the process. 免费的, 广告支持的流媒体服务可能会迎来强劲的一年, 因为家庭已经厌倦了流媒体收费. Look for commercial loads to become a sticking point by the end of the year. 当桌面流媒体很流行的时候, 但观众使用广告拦截器来避开广告, the ad community understood it was part of the problem 和 cut down on ad loads. 但广告拦截器并不是联网电视的选项. 没有减少广告负荷的动机, the ad community is likely to create streaming ad breaks that are just as long as on commercial linear TV.

搬到客厅在2018年造成了一些伤亡, 最突出的是Go90, Verizon面向青少年的移动视频平台. 2015年10月推出, Go90有它自己的社会倾向, 允许观众跟随“剧组”并分享片段. Despite spending a billion dollars in investment, the platform was never able to find an audience. Teens are also overwhelmed with viewing choices, 和 Go90 never attracted enough fans. It 七月关闭低调地. Verizon也拒绝发布 2018年推出OTT订阅服务, 这是人们普遍期待的事情, 也许是因为竞争已经太激烈了.

Facebook had success with video in 2018, but not at the level it once imagined. While the social network’s executives once worked to change the platform into a video powerhouse, 它并没有成为YouTube或netflix的替代品. Many companies 和 sports leagues found success live streaming on Facebook in 2018, as they could tap their social networks to get fans to tune in for live events. But while Facebook invested $1 billion in original premium content 和 Facebook Watch tried to steal popular creators from YouTube, 观众基本上不再收看它的点播节目. 到了年中，这家公司推动IGTV 而不是Facebook Watch, trying to lure fans of its popular social photo app into watching long-form content. 到了年底，专家们已经在说IGTV失败了. Fickle teens prefer following their favorite creators on YouTube, 和 never saw the need for IGTV. 就其本身而言, YouTube今年表现强劲, emerging from its well-publicized br和 safety struggles with more advertisers than ever.

这就是流媒体世界在2018年底的情况. 为了看看接下来会发生什么，我们请来了专家.

太多选择? 只是等待

太多选择的问题将在2019年变得更糟, 和 the solution will be a combination of technology 和 changing consumer behavior.

问题将如何变得更糟? 今年，迪士尼和华纳传媒将高调推出OTT. 许多新兴服务都被贴上了“网飞杀手”的标签,“迪士尼的服务实际上可能会削弱Netflix. Consider that Disney owns Pixar, Star Wars, 和 Marvel, besides its namesake studio. Then consider that it will pull its content off of Netflix 和 add it to its forthcoming Disney+ service. Throw in some original Marvel comics series that borrow from the Marvel film division as well as Star Wars originals, 和 the service starts to look like an absolute must for a wide range of fans. 它的一些热门歌曲，比如 《百家乐软件》 和 《女子监狱 要么已经结束，要么即将结束，Netflix开始显得脆弱起来.

苹果今年还将大举进军高端原创产品, 和 it’s relying on star power (like Oprah Winfrey) to bring the viewers. 截止发稿时，具体细节尚不清楚, word is Apple will make its content available for free (with ads) over its own devices.

So how will consumers deal with having more quality TV choices than ever? 为了找到答案，我们采访了Peter Fondulas Hub娱乐研究.

“我们将获得更多直接面向消费者的服务. 所以迪斯尼会提供一个，也许ESPN会有自己的独立节目. 我们知道苹果公司要推出新产品. And so what’s going to happen is there’s going to be more consumer frustration with the diffusion of content in the future?Fondulas问道.

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